On Tuesday, September 30, Bates hosted Wendy Pearlman, a professor of political science at Northwestern University to discuss her first-hand experience interviewing Syrian refugees over several years. Her presentation, titled “Syria after Assad: How it Got Here, Pathways Forward,” covered the history and politics of the present Syrian situation, as well as her trip to Syria earlier this year.
Pearlman’s presentation began with a short history of Syria starting with when Hafez Al-Assad, the grandfather and predecessor of the now-deposed Bashar Al-Assad, seized power as president of Syria.
The “omnipresent security apparatus” ensured that Syria would be “allowed no space for criticism” Pearlman stated.
Relying on fear and corruption to strengthen their power, Pearlman explained, “nearly everyone knew someone who had disappeared in a prison or a dungeon” during the two Assadist regimes.
As part of the Arab Spring Uprisings, a series of popular protests and rebellions that agitated for democracy in authoritarian Middle Eastern states and swept through the region in the early 2010s, Syria fractured into a civil war in 2011. Pearlman emphasized that this conflict saw the death of half a million people and the displacement of 12 million Syrians.
Speaking on the relative radio silence on news of the Syrian Civil War in recent years, Pearlman indicated that initially there was much coverage of the conflict but “with the ferocity of battles declining, Syria dropped out of the news.”
She redoubled, however, saying that the war is still raging on and that even for those who had escaped the direct areas of conflict, “new battles can become palpable” in attempting to recreate a life anew.
“Refugees don’t have the luxury of being unreflective about home,” Pearlman stated after asking the audience to reflect on the meaning of home to them.
She added that this gives them a “special wisdom.” She summarized one of the important tenets of this wisdom as the understanding that “home takes work.”
Pearlman elucidated further, explaining how a sense of home is created by a multitude of little details that take time to register and become familiar with in a new setting.
Many refugees face expectations from their host countries to simply assimilate and live happily and easily in their new location, Pearlman reported. Expecting refugees to so swiftly do this and accept their new residence as their outright home is “like if you went out and said, ‘I want to fall in love.’”
“It’s never going to happen,” Pearlman quoted one of her interviewees, showing how this expectation is difficult to fulfill for most refugees.
Reflecting on the recent take-over of the country by the rebel coalitions, Pearlman listed three primary factors that contributed to the fall of Assad’s government.
Firstly, during the “frozen conflict” years, rebel groups became more unified and better trained. While the rebels grew stronger, the low-salaried soldiers of Assad’s “narco-state” faltered in their loyalty to the regime, greatly weakening it.
Second, compounding this enfeebling is the inability of Assad’s traditional allies to come to his aid.
Finally, Russia’s war with Ukraine and the militant group Hezbollah’s weakening at the hands of Israel resulted in neither of them being able to support the Syrian government, as its own ability to fight diminished while that of its opposition increased.
As part of its propaganda campaign, Assad’s government promoted the idea that if it fell then chaos would reign in its place.
Pearlman noted that many Syrians were relieved to see that even months after Assad’s fall this message has largely been proven untrue.
However, there were two major sectarian massacres that rocked Syria since the establishment of the caretaker government. In March, in coastal areas following a pro-Assad ambush, many Alawite civilians were killed.
Later, in July, fighting between Bedouin and Druze populations in Sweida would lead to the mortality of another 2000 Syrians. Together these two incidents would measure 3,500 deaths.
Pearlman speculated on why the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led government did not step in swiftly to end these acts of mass violence as the new government does not have any interest in propagating internal violence. She asked if the government was not able or was not willing to have served as a peacemaker on these occasions.
Citing recent polls, Pearlman illustrated that 61% of Syria’s population believes democracy is the best form of government for Syria to now pursue.
While the new president of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has made a point of speaking on the world stage and establishing the legitimacy of his rule over Syria, Pearlman notes that “the president has never said the word democracy.” Calling the HTS-led authority a “government of committee appointments,” Pearlman mentioned that a large number of governmental positions were given out to HTS supporters, potentially signaling an attempt at a less democratic governing system.
Though, she also made aware that there was not a strong indication that HTS is pursuing a more authoritarian regime as they proceed through their unelected five-year transitory government.
Pearlman shared that 56% of Syrians feel the nation is heading in the right direction. Importantly, Pearlman stated that people need to “create pressure” in order to “expand the space of popular sovereignty.”
